Until this week, interest rates had been grinding sideways in an exceptionally narrow range, just off the long term lows seen in early February. March’s biggest news has been the unequivocal break of that range—unfortunately, to the upside.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Could This Be The Big Bounce For Rates?
Volatility Means What You See Is Not Necessarily What You Get
Interest rates continue taking most of their cues from the fluctuations in oil and stock prices. This is a break from historical norms where rates have typically paid much more attention to economic data (the reports on various economic metrics that are released on a set schedule throughout the month).
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Volatility Means What You See Is Not Necessarily What You Get
What Does This Week’s Rate Spike Mean?
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Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
What Does This Week’s Rate Spike Mean?
Lowest Rates in Over a Year. What Now?
Without question, 2016 continues to be one of the wildest rides in recent memory for financial markets. This hasn’t been good for 401k balances, but it has been great for mortgage rates. The average 30yr fixed rate quote is now back to the lowest levels in more than a year.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Lowest Rates in Over a Year. What Now?
Predicting Rising Rates is a Very Dangerous Game
Mortgage rates plunged to 8-month lows this week, defying most expectations. What’s up with that?!
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Predicting Rising Rates is a Very Dangerous Game
2016’s Wild Ride Already Over or Just Getting Started?
One of the most comforting things about trying to predict the future in financial markets is that there are always so many other people trying to predict the future at any given time. That means the entirety of investor expectation is always baked in to current levels. In other words, if there was a way for investors to know that stocks and rates would continue lower from here, people would already be trading accordingly.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
2016’s Wild Ride Already Over or Just Getting Started?
Oil and Stocks Continue Dominating Interest Rate Markets
The big story of 2016 continues to be the heavy losses in risk markets and the resulting improvements in safer haven markets. A risk market is anything with a greater risk of loss in exchange for a greater potential for reward. Stocks are the quintessential risk market, but oil prices have been even more volatile of late.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Oil and Stocks Continue Dominating Interest Rate Markets
Just How Much Do Stocks Matter For Rates?
Last week we discussed the bond market paradox that has been dominating the new year, whereby interest rates moved lower despite stronger economic data. In a normal, boring, perfect world, interest rates AND stock prices would generally move higher when economic data is stronger and vice versa.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Just How Much Do Stocks Matter For Rates?
Why Mortgage Rates are Defying the Data
Spend even a small amount of time following mortgage rates and you can’t help but come across the following conventional wisdom: mortgage rate movement is closely tied to economic data.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Why Mortgage Rates are Defying the Data
Housing Market Has Plenty to Consider in 2016
Although mortgage rates managed to move lower in the immediate wake of the Fed rate hike, they’ve since moved back up to the highest levels since July. This casts doubt as to the direction of the first dose of mortgage rate momentum in 2016. Or worse yet, it removes some of the doubt that currently exists about rates calmly following the Fed Funds Rate higher.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Housing Market Has Plenty to Consider in 2016