The Fed spent the last several months making sure markets are fully prepared for a rate hike in the December meeting. They’ve done a great job too. The consensus for a hike has never been higher, as measured by Fed Funds Futures (where traders bet on the probability of various Fed Funds Rate levels) or by surveys (where more than 90% of economists see a rate hike next week).
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Fed Rate Hike Next Week. Do We Care?

For the past several weeks, mortgage rates had been in consolidation mode, but volatility showed up in a big, unpleasant way today.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rate Volatility Back From Vacation

While we often see volatility in bond markets (and thus, mortgage rates) on Thanksgiving week, this year has been an exception. In fact, rates haven’t moved much at all in nearly 2 weeks.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rates and Housing Trends Suggest Nervous Markets

This year is no exception as bond markets began taking a break from their recent run toward higher rates this week (i.e. rates moved a bit lower). In the true spirit of consolidation, rates also haven’t been eager to move back below their most recent plateau seen just before the last jobs report.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rates and Housing Consolidate Ahead of Holidays

After the abrupt rise in May and June, mortgage rates have enjoyed an extended period of low volatility and consistent improvement. In fact, by October 27th, the average lender was quoting their best rates in 6 months. Why then, did they wind up at 4-month highs less than 2 weeks later?
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Why Are Rates Suddenly at 4-Month Highs?

Last week’s newsletter focused on the discrepancies between the mainstream mortgage rate news and the real day to day changes that it fails to capture. Specifically, by the end of last week, rates moved quite a bit higher than the mainstream reports were able to convey.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
No Reprieve For Mortgage Rates as Fed Doubles Down