Mortgage lenders consider several factors when deciding where to set mortgage rates. By far and away, the bond market is the most important of those factors. But sometimes rates don’t do exactly what the bond market suggests.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as The Market Suggested

Whereas the entire month of March was “up, up, and away” for interest rates, April has been far calmer by comparison.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb

First things first, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Much Calmer Week (Relatively) With Much Lower Rates

The Iran war continues to dominate financial markets and mortgage rates are no exception.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Market Remains Transfixed by War

While the word “regime” is often seen in a geopolitical context, it’s also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
March is Regime Change Month For Rates

February ended with average 30yr fixed rates at the lowest level in more than 3 years. There’s been a grueling march higher since then.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks

Last week, it seemed interest rates could do no wrong. This week has been exactly the opposite.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Rocked (Relatively) by Global Events

Mortgage rates finished the week at their lowest levels since August 2022. In outright terms, this is far from the record lows, but rates set another kind of record.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Set an Interesting Record This Week

In addition to being shortened by Monday’s holiday, this week’s economic data didn’t spark any big reactions in the bond market. Even after The Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, rates managed to end the week right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates at 3-Year Lows Despite Market Volatility After Tariff Ruling

The bond market drives changes in interest rates. Among bond traders, it’s no secret that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) jobs report is the most consequential monthly economic data. But this time around, the reaction defied expectations.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Back Near 3-Year Lows After Defying Jobs Data