While the word “regime” is often seen in a geopolitical context, it’s also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
March is Regime Change Month For Rates

February ended with average 30yr fixed rates at the lowest level in more than 3 years. There’s been a grueling march higher since then.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks

Last week, it seemed interest rates could do no wrong. This week has been exactly the opposite.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Rocked (Relatively) by Global Events

Mortgage rates finished the week at their lowest levels since August 2022. In outright terms, this is far from the record lows, but rates set another kind of record.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Set an Interesting Record This Week

In addition to being shortened by Monday’s holiday, this week’s economic data didn’t spark any big reactions in the bond market. Even after The Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, rates managed to end the week right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates at 3-Year Lows Despite Market Volatility After Tariff Ruling

The bond market drives changes in interest rates. Among bond traders, it’s no secret that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) jobs report is the most consequential monthly economic data. But this time around, the reaction defied expectations.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Back Near 3-Year Lows After Defying Jobs Data

With the announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed Chair, there’s a lot of misinformation and speculation making the rounds regarding the potential impact on mortgage rates. Let’s clear it up.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Will Mortgage Rates Fall Thanks to a New Fed Chair?

This week’s newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Best Month For Home Price Gains in Over a Year, But Context Matters

Mortgage rates pulled back this week as the bond market digested geopolitical tension. Tuesday morning was the worst of it, and the rest of the week was marked by gradual de-escalation.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Tougher Week For Rates, But Mortgage Apps Soar to 3 Year High

First thing’s first: if we take the last 5 days out of the equation, today’s mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023. But they spent most of those last 5 days moving up from even lower levels.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Actually Moved a Bit Higher This Week, But Remain Near Multi-Year Lows