Tuesday December 13th is the day many people have been waiting for ever since Thursday November 10th. What do those two days have in common? They each mark the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index, the official inflation data responsible for some of 2022’s wildest trading days.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Extremely Risky Week Coming Up For Better or Worse

As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that flashes when markets are improving or when interest rates are falling. Green, for lack of a better word, is good.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Dream of Green Christmas With Help From The Fed

There’s no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 2002. The following afternoon, it had fallen more than half a percent to the lowest level in nearly 2 months–the biggest single day drop on record.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Fed Says: Don't Get Too Excited About Rates Just Yet

Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Record Single Day Drop in Rates After Inflation Comes in Cooler

The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.75% this week and 30yr fixed mortgage rates moved moderately higher. Interestingly enough, those two things are fairly unrelated.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Higher Rates Due to The Fed, But Not Due to The Fed's Rate Hike

The average 30yr fixed mortgage rate officially moved over 7% this week according to major weekly surveys, but mortgage rates actually moved lower!
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Actually Moved Lower This Week; What's a "Fed Pivot?"

There’s no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprecedented pace, ushering in one of the quickest cooldowns on record. One of the only ways to find hope in this environment is to imagine that bad news is finite.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Sifting Through Ashes For Seeds Of Hope

Unsurprisingly, the market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation report combined with more UK market drama to push rates to another 20yr high.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
20 Year High Rates as Inflation Persists. Any Hope in Sight?

The resilience of the economy is a matter of debate with different cases to be made depending on the data. But when it comes to the Fed’s favorite reports, the data hasn’t given them any reason to go easy on rates.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Back to 20 Year Highs as Economy Remains Resilient

There was no rest for weary rate watchers after last week’s rout. This week turned out to be even more volatile.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Even Crazier Than Last Week: Rates Briefly Topped 7% For 1st Time in 20 Years