One of the most comforting things about trying to predict the future in financial markets is that there are always so many other people trying to predict the future at any given time. That means the entirety of investor expectation is always baked in to current levels. In other words, if there was a way for investors to know that stocks and rates would continue lower from here, people would already be trading accordingly.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
2016’s Wild Ride Already Over or Just Getting Started?
Oil and Stocks Continue Dominating Interest Rate Markets
The big story of 2016 continues to be the heavy losses in risk markets and the resulting improvements in safer haven markets. A risk market is anything with a greater risk of loss in exchange for a greater potential for reward. Stocks are the quintessential risk market, but oil prices have been even more volatile of late.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Oil and Stocks Continue Dominating Interest Rate Markets
Just How Much Do Stocks Matter For Rates?
Last week we discussed the bond market paradox that has been dominating the new year, whereby interest rates moved lower despite stronger economic data. In a normal, boring, perfect world, interest rates AND stock prices would generally move higher when economic data is stronger and vice versa.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Just How Much Do Stocks Matter For Rates?
Why Mortgage Rates are Defying the Data
Spend even a small amount of time following mortgage rates and you can’t help but come across the following conventional wisdom: mortgage rate movement is closely tied to economic data.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Why Mortgage Rates are Defying the Data
Housing Market Has Plenty to Consider in 2016
Although mortgage rates managed to move lower in the immediate wake of the Fed rate hike, they’ve since moved back up to the highest levels since July. This casts doubt as to the direction of the first dose of mortgage rate momentum in 2016. Or worse yet, it removes some of the doubt that currently exists about rates calmly following the Fed Funds Rate higher.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Housing Market Has Plenty to Consider in 2016
New Mortgage Rules Already Leaving Mark on 2015
2015 was a year of transition for the mortgage and housing industries. Even the very core of the global financial system was in transition if we consider the fact that the year ended with the first Fed rate lift-off in more than 10 years.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
New Mortgage Rules Already Leaving Mark on 2015
Fed Finally Hikes. Mortgage Rates Fall. Wait… What?!
Last week I said that the Fed had done a great job of making sure markets were fully prepared for the upcoming rate hike. That’s no great mystery, but it is something that needed to be seen to be truly believed. Markets were so prepared, in fact, that mortgage rates moved lower on the day of the Fed rate hike, and substantially lower the following day.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Fed Finally Hikes. Mortgage Rates Fall. Wait… What?!
Fed Rate Hike Next Week. Do We Care?
The Fed spent the last several months making sure markets are fully prepared for a rate hike in the December meeting. They’ve done a great job too. The consensus for a hike has never been higher, as measured by Fed Funds Futures (where traders bet on the probability of various Fed Funds Rate levels) or by surveys (where more than 90% of economists see a rate hike next week).
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Fed Rate Hike Next Week. Do We Care?
Mortgage Rate Volatility Back From Vacation
For the past several weeks, mortgage rates had been in consolidation mode, but volatility showed up in a big, unpleasant way today.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rate Volatility Back From Vacation
Mortgage Rates and Housing Trends Suggest Nervous Markets
While we often see volatility in bond markets (and thus, mortgage rates) on Thanksgiving week, this year has been an exception. In fact, rates haven’t moved much at all in nearly 2 weeks.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rates and Housing Trends Suggest Nervous Markets