Markets have settled into a cycle that favors the jobs report as the only critical economic data as far as rates are concerned. This weeks inflation data had a chance to claim/preserve a role as a strong supporting actor, but instead, it basically stood aside and left focus on the labor market and the Fed’s interpretation of recent labor market weakness.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
The Fed is Cutting Rates Next Week, But Not Mortgage Rates

A sharply weaker jobs report helped already-low mortgage rates drop at the fastest pace in more than a year.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Job Count and Mortgage Rates Go Cliff-Diving

This past week was a classic placeholder for mortgage rates. Rates calmly drifted to longer-term lows. Next week will be completely different in terms of potential volatility.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Calm Before the Storm: Rates Drift to 11-Month Lows Ahead of Critical Jobs Report

Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Powell marked a small but important shift in the Fed’s outlook. It was enough for markets to increase bets on a September cut, thus pushing mortgage rates sharply lower.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Powell's Speech Greased The Skids For Rates to Slide to 2025 Lows

Mortgage rates fell in concert with increased odds for a Fed rate cut. But it’s critical to remember that an actual Fed rate cut WOULD NOT guarantee further improvement in mortgage rates unless the economic data keeps supporting the case for more cuts ahead.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Hit 10-Month Lows — Here’s Why a Fed Cut Might Not Help

Last Friday’s jobs report sparked a big rally in the bond market, and thus a big improvement for mortgage rates. This week was very light in terms of market data and volatility, but it helped solidify the improvement from the jobs report.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Calmly Holding the Lowest Rates Since October, But for How Long?

Last week, we said all bets were off until we saw Friday’s jobs report—and that no other piece of economic data moves mortgage rates more reliably. This week proved why that warning is always worth repeating.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
The Jobs Report Was a Mess—Mortgage Rates Loved It

Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
From Snooze to Surge: Big Data Week Could Rock Mortgage Rates

It was a hotly anticipated week, mainly due to the scheduled release of important inflation data on Tuesday, but the rate market almost got more than it bargained for thanks to unexpected headlines the following day.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mixed Inflation Data Overshadowed by Headline Drama

Mortgage rates partied hard for most of June and into the middle of last week–right up until stronger economic data killed the vibe. The resulting bounce in rates carried momentum through to the beginning of this week, but from there on out, things were broadly sideways.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
After Holiday Hangover, Rates Are Ready to Get Serious About Inflation Data