This past week brought the release of two housing reports that track the pace of home sales each month and they told distinctly different stories. Which one is telling the truth?
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Lots at Stake For Rates Next Week; Which Housing Report is Telling You The Truth?

Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Pretty gloomy, but there are silver linings and perhaps even some overly optimistic Kool Aid to drink. As always, we’ll try to focus on the warm bowl of porridge in the middle.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Doom, Gloom, Kool Aid, And Warm Porridge

After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a classic flight to safety following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas Conflict, but at the same time, markets were possibly just as interested in a change in tone from the Fed.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Reacting to War and The Fed, But Maybe Not For Long

Rates were already high coming into this week. As of last Friday, that meant an average 30yr fixed rate just under 7.5%. As of this Friday, we’re closer to 8%.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Surge Toward 8% After Jobs Data; Can "Spreads" Help?

It’s nearly impossible to consume any news these days without coming across the government shutdown. As always, we’re not interested in the politics of the matter–just the question of whether or not the housing and mortgage market should care.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
How Will The Government Shutdown Affect The Mortgage and Housing Markets?

This week’s main event was the scheduled policy announcement from the Fed. As was the case two meetings ago, the Fed opted to hold its policy rate unchanged, but almost every other interest rate in the US moved sharply higher. What’s up with that?
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
If The Fed Didn't Hike, Why Did Mortgage Rates Hit Long Term Highs?

The Fed is not expected to change its rate this time around, but even when the anchor holds steady, the Fed can say things that cause hope and fear about how the anchor might move in the future. In turn, this can cause movement in other rates–sometimes significant movement.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Fed Won't Move Its Rate, But Rates Could Still Move

While it’s impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it’s usually possible to identify the events that have higher potential to cause bigger swings. Other times, volatility strikes on days when it wasn’t entirely expected.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Defended The Ceiling This Week; Bigger Battles Ahead

Depending on the company you keep over this Labor Day weekend, you might hear that rates are high, housing in the verge of collapse, and the economy is headed for a hard, recessionary landing. Or you might hear that rates are coming down, housing has turned a corner, and the economy remains surprisingly resilient. No one is wrong, yet, and it’ll be a while before we find out who’s right.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
It's Complicated, But Also Simple

There was plenty of buzz ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, but it was a bit of a let down for bonds. Next week, however, is one of the more critical weeks of this monetary policy cycle as it will go a long way in determining whether we’ve hit a ceiling or will continue hiking.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Markets Were Anxious Over Powell, But Next Week Deserves More Attention