Spend even a small amount of time following mortgage rates and you can’t help but come across the following conventional wisdom: mortgage rate movement is closely tied to economic data.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Why Mortgage Rates are Defying the Data
Although mortgage rates managed to move lower in the immediate wake of the Fed rate hike, they’ve since moved back up to the highest levels since July. This casts doubt as to the direction of the first dose of mortgage rate momentum in 2016. Or worse yet, it removes some of the doubt that currently exists about rates calmly following the Fed Funds Rate higher.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Housing Market Has Plenty to Consider in 2016
2015 was a year of transition for the mortgage and housing industries. Even the very core of the global financial system was in transition if we consider the fact that the year ended with the first Fed rate lift-off in more than 10 years.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
New Mortgage Rules Already Leaving Mark on 2015
Last week I said that the Fed had done a great job of making sure markets were fully prepared for the upcoming rate hike. That’s no great mystery, but it is something that needed to be seen to be truly believed. Markets were so prepared, in fact, that mortgage rates moved lower on the day of the Fed rate hike, and substantially lower the following day.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Fed Finally Hikes. Mortgage Rates Fall. Wait… What?!
The Fed spent the last several months making sure markets are fully prepared for a rate hike in the December meeting. They’ve done a great job too. The consensus for a hike has never been higher, as measured by Fed Funds Futures (where traders bet on the probability of various Fed Funds Rate levels) or by surveys (where more than 90% of economists see a rate hike next week).
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Fed Rate Hike Next Week. Do We Care?
For the past several weeks, mortgage rates had been in consolidation mode, but volatility showed up in a big, unpleasant way today.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rate Volatility Back From Vacation
While we often see volatility in bond markets (and thus, mortgage rates) on Thanksgiving week, this year has been an exception. In fact, rates haven’t moved much at all in nearly 2 weeks.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rates and Housing Trends Suggest Nervous Markets
This year is no exception as bond markets began taking a break from their recent run toward higher rates this week (i.e. rates moved a bit lower). In the true spirit of consolidation, rates also haven’t been eager to move back below their most recent plateau seen just before the last jobs report.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Mortgage Rates and Housing Consolidate Ahead of Holidays
After the abrupt rise in May and June, mortgage rates have enjoyed an extended period of low volatility and consistent improvement. In fact, by October 27th, the average lender was quoting their best rates in 6 months. Why then, did they wind up at 4-month highs less than 2 weeks later?
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
Why Are Rates Suddenly at 4-Month Highs?
Last week’s newsletter focused on the discrepancies between the mainstream mortgage rate news and the real day to day changes that it fails to capture. Specifically, by the end of last week, rates moved quite a bit higher than the mainstream reports were able to convey.
Source: Kevin Litwicki Universal Lending
No Reprieve For Mortgage Rates as Fed Doubles Down