“So long 2024. Don’t let the door hit ya!” Or… “another year closer to turning a longer-term corner in the housing market.” For better or worse, 2024 was a lot more like 2023 than most housing/mortgage pros were expecting.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Let's Try Something New For 2025

Last week’s newsletter closed with: “If anything on Fed day ends up having an impact on mortgage rates, it would have to be changes in the Fed’s rate outlook and/or comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference that follows the rate announcement.” There were certainly some changes!
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Once Again, Mortgage Rates Shoot Higher After a Fed Rate Cut

Back in September, we spent several weeks warning about the possibility that mortgage rates could rise even as people were waiting for the Fed to cut. This time around, the set-up is a bit different, but caveats remain.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Fed Will Cut Next Week, But They're Not Cutting Mortgage Rates

As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week’s jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Waiting Game is Over and Rates Are Moving

After embarking on a volatile journey in early October, the past 2 weeks have been calmer for mortgage rates, but this is best viewed as the calm before the storm.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates and Housing Back in The Waiting Game

Mortgage rates bounced hard off the long term lows back in September and had jumped almost a full percent by last week. In addition to the elevated levels, there’s been plenty of volatility as well. Despite ongoing volatility, rates managed to avoid breaking last week’s ceiling–even if only just. Does that mean it’s time for hope?
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Are Rates Done Freaking Out Yet?

Over the past month, the dominant narrative was that rates were moving higher in concert with the odds of a Trump victory. Election night proved that narrative and also proved that rates were already largely in position for the outcome.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
How The Election and The Fed Impacted Rates

This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discussion that follows contains no opinion or partisan leaning.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Refuse to Drop Ahead of Election. How About After?

Last week’s newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are concerned, the volatility is already here.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
November Volatility Shows Up Early And Next Week Could Be Even Crazier

This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes jobs report. We had no way of knowing how the future would play out then, and that continues to be the case, but it’s time to get the next big warning on the table.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Time to Start Thinking About Incredibly High Volatility Potential