Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Got The Memo
Mortgage Rates Jumped This Week, But Found a Ceiling
Last week’s newsletter noted an exceptional lack of volatility, but this week ended up shifting gears in a noticeable way.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Jumped This Week, But Found a Ceiling
Eerily Calm Week For Rates
If there were a movie about mortgage rates, this week would be the part where they say “it’s quiet… almost TOO quiet.”
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Eerily Calm Week For Rates
Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as The Market Suggested
Mortgage lenders consider several factors when deciding where to set mortgage rates. By far and away, the bond market is the most important of those factors. But sometimes rates don’t do exactly what the bond market suggests.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as The Market Suggested
War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb
Whereas the entire month of March was “up, up, and away” for interest rates, April has been far calmer by comparison.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
War Still Weighing on Rates, But Volatility Continues to Ebb
Much Calmer Week (Relatively) With Much Lower Rates
First things first, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Much Calmer Week (Relatively) With Much Lower Rates
Mortgage Market Remains Transfixed by War
The Iran war continues to dominate financial markets and mortgage rates are no exception.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Mortgage Market Remains Transfixed by War
March is Regime Change Month For Rates
While the word “regime” is often seen in a geopolitical context, it’s also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
March is Regime Change Month For Rates
From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks
February ended with average 30yr fixed rates at the lowest level in more than 3 years. There’s been a grueling march higher since then.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks
Rates Rocked (Relatively) by Global Events
Last week, it seemed interest rates could do no wrong. This week has been exactly the opposite.
Source: Kevin Litwicki MBSLIVE
Rates Rocked (Relatively) by Global Events